Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Calculate whether your bet is profitable in the long run based on probability and payouts.
About EV Calculator
This educational tool demonstrates expected value calculations for theoretical betting scenarios. Designed to teach mathematical decision-making concepts without any connection to real gambling activities or financial advice.
How It Works
- Input probability of winning (0-100%)
- Enter potential payout amount
- Add theoretical stake amount
- Calculates long-term expected value
- Shows profit/loss assessment
Legal Disclaimer
By using this calculator, you agree:
- Purely academic/entertainment purpose
- No real-money gambling association
- Prohibited for financial decisions
- Users must be 18+ years old
- Does NOT predict actual outcomes
- We oppose all gambling activities
- Results are mathematical models
- Compliance with all gaming laws
Calculation Methodology
Core Formula:
EV = (Win% × Payout) - (Lose% × Stake)
Where:
- Win% = Input Probability ÷ 100
- Lose% = 1 - Win%
Educational Value
- Teaches expected value concepts
- Demonstrates risk/reward analysis
- Shows probability-weighted outcomes
- Illustrates long-term thinking
- Explains mathematical advantage
Strict Prohibitions
ANY association with:
- Real-money gambling
- Investment decisions
- Betting strategy development
- Underage usage
- Financial planning
Technical Specifications
- Handles decimal inputs
- Validates probability range
- Mobile-responsive design
- Instant calculations
- No data retention
Analysis Limits
- Ignores variance (short-term swings)
- Static probability assumption
- No compounding effects
- Single-event focus
- Simplified binary outcomes
Mathematical Guide:
- Positive EV (+): Long-term profitable
- Negative EV (-): Long-term losing
- Break-even (0): No mathematical edge
Example Calculation:
50% Win Chance | 200Payout∣200Payout∣100 Stake
EV = (0.5×200) - (0.5×100) = 50Interpretation:+50Interpretation:+50 expected value per trial
Key Assumptions:
- Independent identical events
- Accurate probability estimates
- Fixed payout/stake amounts
- No transaction costs
- Infinite trials